Can Chiranjeevi create history like NTR?

Chiranjeevi was dragged into political discussions by fans and media even though he doesn’t utter a single word on his political motives. According to rumours, Chiranjeevi is in consultation with his close aides regarding his political plans and he may announce his new party after Sankranthi festival. As per sources, he wants to start a political party with new agenda with the help of young and dynamic leaders. But political hopefuls and opposition leaders are trying to place “Kapu card” on Chiranjeevi. It is interesting to see how Chiranjeevi can handle this caste image which was imposed on him even before he enters into politics. Political observers are asking few interesting questions:

1. Is there any space left for new political outfit?

In 1983, NTR easily came to power just within 9 months of Telugu Desam inception due to huge political vacuum.

But Chiranjeevi can win if he can successfully mobilise “unhappy communities” with new agenda. He may face problems in Rayalaseema and Telangana but he may emerge as largest party in coastal Andhra. It will be difficult for him to sweep polls as NTR did in 1983.

2. Can Chiranjeevi emulate NTR?

NTR used his charisma, exceptional oratory skills, media and political vacuum to the maximum to decimate Congress party. Congress leaders underestimated NTR’s ability and paid the price.
But this time, TDP and Congress are not underestimating Chiranjeevi. But Chiranjeevi created good image among people through his social activities like blood banks and eye banks.

Chiranjeevi may not get media support as it was enjoyed by NTR in 1983. Congress and TDP may do anything to spoil his political aspirations.

3. Can BCs support Chiranjeevi?

NTR came to power by successfully combining Kamma’s money power and BCs statistical power (number). Can Kapu + BC alliance come to power? We have to wait and watch.

4. Can he get support from non-Kapu fans?

It is the most crucial question. If fans from other castes (except Kapu and BC) support him politically, he may easily win 2009 assembly elections.

According to my small survey in Ongole, 30% of fans from other castes are not supporting his political ambitions. They want to see him as “Andarivadu” but not as “Kondarivadu”.

5. Available time:

NTR had just 9 months in 1982 but Chiranjeevi has 18 months to win next Assembly elections.

6. Political rivals:

NTR has lesser rivals in the state in 1983 but he faced charismatic leader like Indira Gandhi. Chiranjeevi has to face strong local leaders like Y.S. Rajasekhar Reddy and Chandrababu Naidu in the state to win polls.

We have to wait and watch his political moves before coming to conclusion. Will Chiranjeevi really enter politics?

Please share your opinion.

Andhra members are richest among Lok Sabha M.Ps

Lok Sabha M.Ps from Andhra Pradesh occupied top slots in the rich Lok Sabha members list. Andhra M.Ps occupied 3 slots among the top 6. Of these 3 members, 1 member is from Telugu Desam Party and 2 members are from Congress Party.

Telugu Desam M.P:

D. Adi Keshavulu Naidu - Chittoor

Congress Party members:

Renuka Chowdary – Khammam
B. Rama Krishna - Machilipatnam

About Adi Keshavulu Naidu (TDP):

The Telugu Desam Party MP from Chittoor in Andhra Pradesh, D.K. Audikesavulu, is the richest member of the Lok Sabha. He is an industrialist and elected for Lok Sabha by overcoming anti-incumbency wave against Telugu Desam in 2004 Parliament elections. He has also invested around Rs 62 Crores in bonds, debentures and shares in companies and other businesses. He is the owner of five motor vehicles worth Rs 52 Lakhs, and residential and commercial properties worth around Rs 1.60crore.

As per Election Affidavits, 145 Lok Sabha M.Ps are Multi-millionaires while 301 members are millionaires.

Top richest Lok Sabha M.Ps:

1. Adi Keshavulu Naidu – 68 Crore
2. P.Chidambaram – 18 Crore
3. Preneet Kaur (Rs 37 crores) –Punjab
4. Gurjeet Singh Rana (Rs 20 crores) – Punjab
5. Renuka Choudhary – Andhra Pradesh
6. Ramakrishna Badiga (Rs 14 crores) - Andhra Pradesh
7. Kuldeep Bishnoi from Haryana (Rs 14 crores)
8. Madhu Goud Yaskhi from Andhra Pradesh (Rs 13 crores)
9. J.M. Aaron Rashid from Tamil Nadu (Rs 12 crores).

Though our M.Ps may get worst rankings in the performance section, at least they get top rankings in the income list. Congrats, Keep it up!

Courtesy: Deccan Chronicle and Election Commission Affidavits.

Karimnagar by election - Review.

Voters of Karimnagar Loksabha segment gave a clear mandate for a separate Telanganastate. Telangana Rashtra Samithi president K.Chandrasekhar Rao won the by election by a massive margin of over 2 lakhs. It sends tremors across all parties. Telangana leaders of Telugu Desam and Congress are in a dilemma whether to support the Telangana cause or go as per their high command wishes.

It also illustrated the fact that nothing works against Telangana sentiment. Congress party spent around 100 crore for Karimnagar by election. But, its candidate lost by 2 lakh votes.

People attended the Telugu Desam (TDP) road shows in large numbers but still voted for Separate state. Even beedi - skull issue failed to capture votes.

Even though TRS chief has done nothing for them, they gave him thumping majority while BJP senior leader CH.Vidyasagar Rao lost the deposit.

So, it is the time for Telugu Desam and Congress to respect the people sentiment and review their rigid stand.

As an Andhraite, my opinion is that separate Andhra State is good for us in the long term and loss in the short term.

TRS is ahead in Karimnagar

Telangana Rashtra Samithi candidate K.Chandrasekhar Rao has gained a slight edge over Telugu Desam and Congress candidates as campaign ends on Saturday.

If TRS cadre can able to poll all its votes successfully, it will emerge as winner.

Election Trends on various parameters :

Money :

1. Congress


2. Telugu Desam


3. TRS

Campaign :

1. TDP


2. TRS


3. Congress

Sentiment :

1. TRS


2. TDP


3. Congress

If sentiment prevails, TRS will win in Karimnagar by elections.

Why Telugu Desam and Congress are attacking KCR?

In the Karimnagar byelections campaign, TDP and Congress are attacking Telangana Rashtra Samithi President K. Chandrasekhar rao.

Telugu Desam President N.Chandrababu Naidu and Chief Minister Y.S Rajasekhar Reddy, in their road shows, criticised KCR with strong words leaving Congress and TDP respectively.

Major reason for this change is Vote calculations.

Of all the 14 lakh votes in Karimnagar, 6-7 lakh voters are traditionally voted for Telugu Desam and Congress.

Remaining voters are volatile voters - voted basing on emotions and trends.

TRS has high hopes on these emotional voters. So, YSR and Babu tried to make an impression on these voters who are currently supporting TRS.

If they change their minds, it will make life difficult for TRS president KCR.

We have to wait to see the final result to know the voter's minds.

Caste based voting in Andhra Pradesh

Based on research paper prepared by K C Suri,

45% of voters felt that one should vote for one's caste members.

69.3% of reddys voted for the congress while only 21.7% supported the TDP.

Among Kammas, 51.7% voted for the Telugu Desam Party while only 31% voted for Congress Party.

The Kapus are divided between TDP and Congress. 46.9% voted for Congress and 35.7% voted for TDP.

OBCs - 52 percent for congress and 37.1 percent for telugu desam party.

SCs - 71% for congress and 17.4% fot TDP.

While 67.7% minorities voted for congress and 21.9% for TDP.

So, Congress has more consistent and traditional vote Bank than Telugu desam Party.

More number of Neutral (not caste sensitive) voters are voting for TDP. That is the reason behind Telugu Desam's 16 year rule in the last 23 years.

In Andhra Pradesh, as per political observers, Reddys and SCs vote for Congress Party while Kammas and BCs vote for Telugu Desam Party.

Most surprising aspect of this survey is that if their caste candidate contest for their rival party, they still voted for him.

Caste is shining in Andhra Pradesh. Please share your opinion on caste based politics.